Pasdaran
09-03-2007, 03:08 PM
http://www.thejewishweek.com/news/newscontent.php3?artid=14460
Even as they fight revived charges that Israel and the pro-Israel community are beating the drums for war with Iran, Jewish leaders here are quietly trying to protect President George W. Bush’s ability to use military force to knock out that country’s nuclear weapons program if diplomatic efforts fail.
But they are running headlong into a national mood of skepticism and distrust about American foreign policy in general — and a surge of opposition to any new U.S. military involvements in particular.
Talking even indirectly about the war option is risky because “there is virtually no public support for an attack on Iran,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
And a leading Jewish military analyst warned that Jewish leaders are playing with fire by talking about the military option without understanding its difficulties or dangers.
“Flirting with the military option without understanding its meaning is very dangerous,” said Shoshana Bryen, special projects director for the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “I don’t think Jewish leaders are pushing the administration to war, but by not understanding the consequences, they are not making themselves look good; they open themselves up to a lot of criticism by being glib about going to war.”
Bryen, whose group has strong ties to U.S. and Israeli military leaders, said there are no simple, clean military options for dealing with the Iranian threat, and that almost any U.S. attack would prompt massive retaliation against Israel.
Jewish leaders “say they don’t want to remove the military option, but when asked how we should exercise it, the answer is usually ‘uhhhh,’” she said. “That really weakens their case.”
Bryen said she agrees with most Jewish leaders that “the military option should never be taken off the table. But I would be very careful about how I throw it around out in public.”
The dilemma for Jewish leaders is this: While almost none advocates preemptive military action to end the threat of a nuclear Iran, most believe opposition to new military commitments is growing by leaps and bounds — a new version of the classic “Vietnam syndrome.”
And if Iran believes military action is unlikely, “you have no diplomatic leverage,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “I don’t think there is a great deal of understanding [among the American public] of the threat Iran poses to the United States and the entire region, including Israel.”
That was the driving force behind the successful effort earlier this year by pro-Israel groups to thwart legislation that would have forced Bush to get congressional backing before unleashing a depleted military on Iran.
“It’s probably a mistake to take military action off the table in any part of the world,” said Martin Raffel, assistant executive director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). “The administration needs to have the capacity, when necessary, to use military force; if you take that off the table, you’re limiting your range of options.”
Keeping all options open remains a priority for the pro-Israel community, he said, along with ratcheting up diplomatic and economic pressure on the Tehran regime.
Raffel conceded that public frustration over the war in Iraq makes that argument “harder” when it comes to Iran. “The burden of proof is higher because of Iraq, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be met,” he said.
At the same time, Jewish leaders are painfully aware of the continuing chorus of those who blame Israel and pro-Israel groups for the war in Iraq.
In their new book, foreign-policy scholars Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer again claim that pro-Israel forces were a “critical element” in the decision to go to war in Iraq. “America would not be in Iraq today” without the efforts of the pro-Israel lobby, they write.
Now, the two say, pro-Israel groups have made war with Iran more likely by pressing the Bush administration to avoid negotiating with the Tehran regime.
Jewish leaders vehemently reject that charge, but recent developments — including a rising chorus of neoconservatives, many of them Jewish, calling for preemptive war and the growing association with hawkish Christian Zionists such as Pastor John Hagee who echo that call — could give it added credence with a war-weary public.
And last week a group of top Jewish Republicans, including major leaders of the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) and former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, banded together under the name “Freedom’s Watch” to start a free-spending media campaign defending Bush’s policies in Iraq.
“They attacked us, and they will again,” the initial ad claims. “They won’t stop in Iraq. We are winning on the ground and making real progress. It’s no time to quit. It’s no time for politics.”
In that environment, Jewish leaders arguing that the military option should not be discarded while insisting they are not pressing for war are walking a “precarious line,” said Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. “It’s harder for pro-Israel groups to avoid the charge that they are indifferent to American interests. And they have the added difficulty of being aligned with the Christian Zionists, some of whom are openly calling for war with Iran.”
With public sentiment against new military conflicts running at flood tide, “It’s a difficult situation for pro-Israel groups to be in,” Ginsberg said. “They have to lie low and bring pressure from the sidelines.”
Signs of the shifting public mood are everywhere. Rep. Steve Israel (D-L.I.) sees it every time he goes home to his district.
“I am hearing a lot of this from constituents,” said Israel, who opposes efforts to take the military option off the table. “People are writing and saying, we just don’t buy the arguments about enriched uranium, we don’t want you contemplating a military solution. Iran is one of the things that keeps me up at night, but it would be exceedingly difficult for me to stand up at a town meeting on Long Island at some point and make the case that that if diplomacy has failed, we have to consider the military option.”
While polls show widespread awareness that a nuclear Iran would pose a significant security threat to U.S. interests, support for military action is low and — according to some surveys — dropping.
A CBS survey in March showed that although 65 percent of those questioned agreed that Iran is supplying arms to Iraqi insurgents, only 18 percent favored immediate military action. Early in the year, respondents in a Pew Research Center poll were asked: “Which is more important: to take a firm stand against Iranian actions or to avoid a military conflict?” The result was an even split.
It’s not just Iran that worries voters. Although few analysts predict a return to the isolationism of the past, numerous commentators have noted that the idea of cutting back U.S. involvement overseas is gaining traction in some political circles, driven by fear of new military conflicts.
In the 2008 presidential race, one modest surprise has been the performance of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), whose quixotic candidacy is steeped in the view that American meddling in foreign countries — and particularly in the Middle East — is responsible for many of the nation’s woes.
Also, an attempt by Republican leaders in June to hold up a foreign-aid bill that included Israel’s huge $2.4 billion annual allotment was driven, at least in part, by growing dissatisfaction with U.S. involvement overseas. “The Republicans were going back to the old isolationist argument that in a tough economy, we shouldn’t be spending on other countries,” Israel said.
“A failed, costly, bloody foreign war always makes the American people look inward,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “Iraq has been a disaster on the order of Vietnam — not as many troops killed, but arguably even more damaging to our international standing. Naturally, the public will be hesitant to intervene abroad, anywhere soon. It will be one of George W. Bush’s legacies.”
“After every war, there is major isolationist sentiment,” said Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC). “It’s not just a Republican or a Democratic problem; after World War ll, it was largely a Republican problem, after Vietnam it was partly a Democratic problem. But the risks of significant disillusionment are particularly high in the wake of the Iraq fiasco.”
Jennifer Laszlo-Mizrahi, founder and president of The Israel Project, said that it’s not so much traditional isolationism as a deep and spreading distrust of leaders in both parties that is generating pressure against U.S. intervention in the Middle East in general and Iran in particular.
“Politicians are not popular because they’re seen as not successful,” said Mizrahi, whose organization has done extensive polling on attitudes about Iran. “People say they know what’s going on Iran, but given that we can’t seem to organize a one-car funeral in our public policy, why engage in another problem?”
She said the wariness about U.S. policy toward Iran “is an enormous problem. People see Iran as a real threat to America, but when you ask them what should be done, they feel that their leaders are not equipped to deal with the problem. So they turn to the UN, to the European Union.”
Washington’s credibility crisis and signs of a mood of international retreat have led Jewish groups to seek new strategies on Iran.
“It’s one of the reasons we have focused so much on divestment at the state and local level,” Laszlo-Mizrahi said. “It’s something Americans do like; it’s not a bunch of politicians, it’s people taking action in their own portfolios, state and local-level politicians divesting their pension funds.”
And increasingly, Jewish groups are portraying divestment, sanctions and other forms of economic leverage as a kind of anti-war tactic — a way to avoid a new conflict the American people are not ready to support.
“Communities are calling for the most vigorous economic and diplomatic efforts as a way of heading off the possibility of war with Iran,” said Martin Raffel, assistant director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). “Divestment and other strategies are essentially anti-war initiatives.”
Even as they fight revived charges that Israel and the pro-Israel community are beating the drums for war with Iran, Jewish leaders here are quietly trying to protect President George W. Bush’s ability to use military force to knock out that country’s nuclear weapons program if diplomatic efforts fail.
But they are running headlong into a national mood of skepticism and distrust about American foreign policy in general — and a surge of opposition to any new U.S. military involvements in particular.
Talking even indirectly about the war option is risky because “there is virtually no public support for an attack on Iran,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
And a leading Jewish military analyst warned that Jewish leaders are playing with fire by talking about the military option without understanding its difficulties or dangers.
“Flirting with the military option without understanding its meaning is very dangerous,” said Shoshana Bryen, special projects director for the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “I don’t think Jewish leaders are pushing the administration to war, but by not understanding the consequences, they are not making themselves look good; they open themselves up to a lot of criticism by being glib about going to war.”
Bryen, whose group has strong ties to U.S. and Israeli military leaders, said there are no simple, clean military options for dealing with the Iranian threat, and that almost any U.S. attack would prompt massive retaliation against Israel.
Jewish leaders “say they don’t want to remove the military option, but when asked how we should exercise it, the answer is usually ‘uhhhh,’” she said. “That really weakens their case.”
Bryen said she agrees with most Jewish leaders that “the military option should never be taken off the table. But I would be very careful about how I throw it around out in public.”
The dilemma for Jewish leaders is this: While almost none advocates preemptive military action to end the threat of a nuclear Iran, most believe opposition to new military commitments is growing by leaps and bounds — a new version of the classic “Vietnam syndrome.”
And if Iran believes military action is unlikely, “you have no diplomatic leverage,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “I don’t think there is a great deal of understanding [among the American public] of the threat Iran poses to the United States and the entire region, including Israel.”
That was the driving force behind the successful effort earlier this year by pro-Israel groups to thwart legislation that would have forced Bush to get congressional backing before unleashing a depleted military on Iran.
“It’s probably a mistake to take military action off the table in any part of the world,” said Martin Raffel, assistant executive director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). “The administration needs to have the capacity, when necessary, to use military force; if you take that off the table, you’re limiting your range of options.”
Keeping all options open remains a priority for the pro-Israel community, he said, along with ratcheting up diplomatic and economic pressure on the Tehran regime.
Raffel conceded that public frustration over the war in Iraq makes that argument “harder” when it comes to Iran. “The burden of proof is higher because of Iraq, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be met,” he said.
At the same time, Jewish leaders are painfully aware of the continuing chorus of those who blame Israel and pro-Israel groups for the war in Iraq.
In their new book, foreign-policy scholars Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer again claim that pro-Israel forces were a “critical element” in the decision to go to war in Iraq. “America would not be in Iraq today” without the efforts of the pro-Israel lobby, they write.
Now, the two say, pro-Israel groups have made war with Iran more likely by pressing the Bush administration to avoid negotiating with the Tehran regime.
Jewish leaders vehemently reject that charge, but recent developments — including a rising chorus of neoconservatives, many of them Jewish, calling for preemptive war and the growing association with hawkish Christian Zionists such as Pastor John Hagee who echo that call — could give it added credence with a war-weary public.
And last week a group of top Jewish Republicans, including major leaders of the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) and former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, banded together under the name “Freedom’s Watch” to start a free-spending media campaign defending Bush’s policies in Iraq.
“They attacked us, and they will again,” the initial ad claims. “They won’t stop in Iraq. We are winning on the ground and making real progress. It’s no time to quit. It’s no time for politics.”
In that environment, Jewish leaders arguing that the military option should not be discarded while insisting they are not pressing for war are walking a “precarious line,” said Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. “It’s harder for pro-Israel groups to avoid the charge that they are indifferent to American interests. And they have the added difficulty of being aligned with the Christian Zionists, some of whom are openly calling for war with Iran.”
With public sentiment against new military conflicts running at flood tide, “It’s a difficult situation for pro-Israel groups to be in,” Ginsberg said. “They have to lie low and bring pressure from the sidelines.”
Signs of the shifting public mood are everywhere. Rep. Steve Israel (D-L.I.) sees it every time he goes home to his district.
“I am hearing a lot of this from constituents,” said Israel, who opposes efforts to take the military option off the table. “People are writing and saying, we just don’t buy the arguments about enriched uranium, we don’t want you contemplating a military solution. Iran is one of the things that keeps me up at night, but it would be exceedingly difficult for me to stand up at a town meeting on Long Island at some point and make the case that that if diplomacy has failed, we have to consider the military option.”
While polls show widespread awareness that a nuclear Iran would pose a significant security threat to U.S. interests, support for military action is low and — according to some surveys — dropping.
A CBS survey in March showed that although 65 percent of those questioned agreed that Iran is supplying arms to Iraqi insurgents, only 18 percent favored immediate military action. Early in the year, respondents in a Pew Research Center poll were asked: “Which is more important: to take a firm stand against Iranian actions or to avoid a military conflict?” The result was an even split.
It’s not just Iran that worries voters. Although few analysts predict a return to the isolationism of the past, numerous commentators have noted that the idea of cutting back U.S. involvement overseas is gaining traction in some political circles, driven by fear of new military conflicts.
In the 2008 presidential race, one modest surprise has been the performance of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), whose quixotic candidacy is steeped in the view that American meddling in foreign countries — and particularly in the Middle East — is responsible for many of the nation’s woes.
Also, an attempt by Republican leaders in June to hold up a foreign-aid bill that included Israel’s huge $2.4 billion annual allotment was driven, at least in part, by growing dissatisfaction with U.S. involvement overseas. “The Republicans were going back to the old isolationist argument that in a tough economy, we shouldn’t be spending on other countries,” Israel said.
“A failed, costly, bloody foreign war always makes the American people look inward,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “Iraq has been a disaster on the order of Vietnam — not as many troops killed, but arguably even more damaging to our international standing. Naturally, the public will be hesitant to intervene abroad, anywhere soon. It will be one of George W. Bush’s legacies.”
“After every war, there is major isolationist sentiment,” said Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC). “It’s not just a Republican or a Democratic problem; after World War ll, it was largely a Republican problem, after Vietnam it was partly a Democratic problem. But the risks of significant disillusionment are particularly high in the wake of the Iraq fiasco.”
Jennifer Laszlo-Mizrahi, founder and president of The Israel Project, said that it’s not so much traditional isolationism as a deep and spreading distrust of leaders in both parties that is generating pressure against U.S. intervention in the Middle East in general and Iran in particular.
“Politicians are not popular because they’re seen as not successful,” said Mizrahi, whose organization has done extensive polling on attitudes about Iran. “People say they know what’s going on Iran, but given that we can’t seem to organize a one-car funeral in our public policy, why engage in another problem?”
She said the wariness about U.S. policy toward Iran “is an enormous problem. People see Iran as a real threat to America, but when you ask them what should be done, they feel that their leaders are not equipped to deal with the problem. So they turn to the UN, to the European Union.”
Washington’s credibility crisis and signs of a mood of international retreat have led Jewish groups to seek new strategies on Iran.
“It’s one of the reasons we have focused so much on divestment at the state and local level,” Laszlo-Mizrahi said. “It’s something Americans do like; it’s not a bunch of politicians, it’s people taking action in their own portfolios, state and local-level politicians divesting their pension funds.”
And increasingly, Jewish groups are portraying divestment, sanctions and other forms of economic leverage as a kind of anti-war tactic — a way to avoid a new conflict the American people are not ready to support.
“Communities are calling for the most vigorous economic and diplomatic efforts as a way of heading off the possibility of war with Iran,” said Martin Raffel, assistant director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). “Divestment and other strategies are essentially anti-war initiatives.”